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Devin Singletary

Devin Singletary Carries
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Devin Singletary Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-135/+105).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 10th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Devin Singletary has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, playing on 71.9% of snaps compared to just 57.9% last year.

The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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