Deven Thompkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Deven Thompkins

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Deven Thompkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Deven Thompkins's 34.0% Route Participation% this year indicates an impressive boost in his pass attack usage over last year's 21.4% rate.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.
This year, the shaky Bills pass defense has yielded a whopping 78.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the biggest rate in football.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.3 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
With a bad 14.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (20th percentile) this year, Deven Thompkins ranks among the weakest pass-catching WRs in the NFL.