DeVante Parker Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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DeVante Parker

NFL · Player Props

DeVante Parker

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

DeVante Parker Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 134.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.
DeVante Parker has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (85.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (68.8%).
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
DeVante Parker's 60.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 64.6% rate.
The Chargers pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.6%) to wide receivers this year (63.6%).

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