DeVante Parker Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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DeVante Parker

NFL · Player Props

DeVante Parker

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

DeVante Parker Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
DeVante Parker has gone out for fewer passes this year (86.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (68.8%).
The Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (72.3%) versus wideouts this year (72.3%).

Favors Under

After accumulating 61.0 air yards per game last season, DeVante Parker has regressed heavily this season, now pacing 43.0 per game.
When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
DeVante Parker's 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a noteworthy reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year's 45.0 mark.
DeVante Parker's receiving efficiency has diminished this season, notching a mere 6.59 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 11.43 figure last season.
The Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.84 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

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