DeVante Parker Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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DeVante Parker

NFL · Player Props

DeVante Parker

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

DeVante Parker Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
DeVante Parker ranks in the 81st percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season with a massive 24.6% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

Favors Under

DeVante Parker's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging just 7.28 yards-per-target compared to a 11.43 mark last year.
The Cowboys pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (63.5%).
The Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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