DeVante Parker Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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DeVante Parker

NFL · Player Props

DeVante Parker

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

DeVante Parker Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+307/-552).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -504 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -552.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (71.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.4%).
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks rank as the worst collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.
The Detroit Lions defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
DeVante Parker has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (79.0 per game) than he did last season (91.0 per game).
DeVante Parker's 41.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 58.3.

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