DeVante Parker Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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DeVante Parker

NFL · Player Props

DeVante Parker

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

DeVante Parker Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+329/-615).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +366 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +329.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects DeVante Parker to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (20.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played).
DeVante Parker has compiled a colossal 93.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among WRs.
DeVante Parker's 55.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 86th percentile for wide receivers.
The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 8th-most passing TDs in the NFL to WRs: 1.10 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
DeVante Parker's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 55.9% to 44.1%.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (60.8%).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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