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DeVante Parker

DeVante Parker Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots

DeVante Parker Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+291/-509).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +383 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +291.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

THE BLITZ projects DeVante Parker to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (17.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.9% in games he has played).

DeVante Parker's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 55.9% to 59.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.

DeVante Parker has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (91.0 per game).

DeVante Parker's 39.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 58.3.

The New England Patriots offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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