Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons as the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 47.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Desmond Ridder has averaged 3.7 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, one of the largest rates in the NFL among quarterbacks (79th percentile).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
Desmond Ridder's rushing effectiveness (3.83 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (23rd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).
Desmond Ridder has been among the weakest quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 0.77 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 20th percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.26 yards-per-carry.

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