Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+119/-158).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.6 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 86 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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