Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The New Orleans Saints defense has produced the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 4.81 yards-per-carry.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.

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