Desmond Ridder Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Interceptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Desmond Ridder Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-131/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box vs. opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 44.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.6 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have intercepted 0.91 targets per game this year, ranking as the 4th-best defense in the league by this metric.