Desmond Ridder Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Completions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Desmond Ridder Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Desmond Ridder to attempt 31.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-fewest of all quarterbacks.
The Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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