Desmond Ridder Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Desmond Ridder Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Falcons as the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football last year at opening holes for runners.
The Tampa Bay defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

A throwing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects Desmond Ridder to garner 4.3 rush attempts this week, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.

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