Deshaun Watson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Deshaun Watson

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Touchdowns

New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+413/-456).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns rank as the 9th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 61.6% red zone pass rate.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Browns profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.
With a remarkable 69.4% Adjusted Completion% (86th percentile) this year, Deshaun Watson ranks among the best precision passers in football.
The rushing touchdown field reads "0" on the back of Deshaun Watson's trading card this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Browns have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 52.8 plays per game.
In this contest, Deshaun Watson is expected by the model to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.6.
While Deshaun Watson has accounted for 23.1% of his team's red zone carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Cleveland's run game near the goal line in this week's contest at 32.3%.
This year, the stout Jets defense has given up a meager 1.25 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 10th-best rate in the league.

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