Deshaun Watson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Deshaun Watson

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Touchdowns

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 10:12 PM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+413/-426).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 60.9% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the league in these cases has been the Browns.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football.
Since the start of last season, the anemic Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been torched for a staggering 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Steelers run defense has yielded a meager 0.55 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Browns as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect Deshaun Watson to throw 31.5 passes in this contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all QBs.
Deshaun Watson isn't afraid to run the ball near the goal line, accounting for 30.0% of his offense's red zone carries this year (98th percentile among QBs).
When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Browns ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season.

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