Deshaun Watson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-166/+141).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -173 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are enormous -8.5-point underdogs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense last year: most in the NFL.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (53.1% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Browns.
Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cleveland Browns.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Cleveland Browns ranks as the 4th-worst in football last year.
Last year, the strong Jaguars defense has conceded a measly 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.