Deshaun Watson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.4% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Deshaun Watson is expected by the model to accrue the 3rd-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 6.6.
Deshaun Watson is positioned as one of the top quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an excellent 2.86 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The model projects Deshaun Watson to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack in this week's game (22.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (29.5% in games he has played).
Since the start of last season, the feeble Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has been torched for a monstrous 4.13 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's run game: the 25th-worst rate in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.