Deshaun Watson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 176.5 (-104/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 149.5 @ -99900 before it was bet up to 176.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are enormous -8.5-point underdogs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense last year: most in the NFL.
The Jaguars defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cleveland Browns.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Cleveland Browns ranks as the 4th-worst in football last year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has shown strong efficiency last year, giving up 6.99 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-fewest in the league.