Deshaun Watson Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Deshaun Watson

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Pass Attempts

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns have gone for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 30.7 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-least in football.

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