Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-145/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 10th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Derrick Henry to accumulate 18.5 carries in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Derrick Henry has garnered 73.9% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Derrick Henry has picked up 85.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (98th percentile).
The Bengals linebackers project as the 8th-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The projections expect the Titans to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.0 plays per game.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.
Derrick Henry's ground effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 3.03 yards-per-carry vs a 4.19 rate last season.