Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 62.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 46.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see just 130.9 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The predictive model expects Derrick Henry to earn 20.9 carries in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has been given 70.6% of his offense's run game usage this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in football (132 per game) versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Derrick Henry's 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows an impressive regression in his rushing talent over last year's 91.0 mark.

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