Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 90.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 80.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 43.1% run rate.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 21.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has garnered 89.8% of his team's carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Titans are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-least yards in football (just 103 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.