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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 90.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 80.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 43.1% run rate.
  • The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
  • The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 21.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
  • Derrick Henry has garnered 89.8% of his team's carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Titans are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-least yards in football (just 103 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
  • The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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