Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 101.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 99.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 101.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 24.0 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has been given 84.8% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.7 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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