Derrick Henry Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-119/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-most run-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 50.1% red zone run rate.
Derrick Henry has been given 86.4% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Derrick Henry has rushed for 1.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football among running backs (99th percentile).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the 4th-worst DE corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.43 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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