Derrick Henry Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-107/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +109 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-most run-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 44.9% red zone run rate.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has garnered 94.4% of his offense's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has rushed for 1.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (99th percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-most TDs in the NFL (1.06 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Titans are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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