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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 14

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-154/+118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -154.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

Derrick Henry has earned 86.1% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

Derrick Henry has rushed for 0.83 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (98th percentile).

The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

The Tennessee Titans have utilized some form of misdirection on 50.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.7 plays per game.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles project as the 4th-best group of DTs in football this year with their run defense.

The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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