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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 12

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-173/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -173.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 44.8% red zone run rate.

Derrick Henry has received 87.5% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Derrick Henry has rushed for 1.00 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (98th percentile).

The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles project as the 9th-worst group of DTs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.7 plays per game.

The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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