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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Baltimore O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

With an outstanding 88.5% Adjusted Catch% (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Derrick Henry rates as one of the best possession receivers in football among running backs.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers project as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite this week.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.5% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to see just 123.0 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

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