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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.2 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Ravens grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.

Derrick Henry profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, completing a stellar 87.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 91st percentile.

When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Dallas's safety corps has been atrocious since the start of last season, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 54.4% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.3 per game) since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the tough Cowboys defense has conceded a measly 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.

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