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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+116/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +116.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.

The predictive model expects the Ravens to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

With an exceptional 90.7% Adjusted Catch Rate (98th percentile) last year, Derrick Henry has been among the best possession receivers in the league among running backs.

Last year, the porous Chiefs pass defense has surrendered a massive 89.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 3rd-worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense last year: 4th-fewest in football.

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