Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
A throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a -5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Derrick Henry's 100.0% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a a substantial gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 84.3% mark.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football (57.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Titans.
The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Derrick Henry has been used much less in his offense's passing attack.
The the Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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