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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to lean 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.

The Titans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Derrick Henry's 91.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a significant progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 84.3% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 56.1% pass rate.

The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.

Derrick Henry's 9.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 15.2.

The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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