Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to skew 1.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Derrick Henry has been much less involved in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for just 44.7% of snaps compared to 60.5% last season.
Derrick Henry's 94.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a material growth in his pass-catching talent over last season's 84.3% figure.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Titans to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by the model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.5 plays per game.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Titans grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year.

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