Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+175/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -240.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Henry has been a big part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 9.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
The Washington Commanders linebackers profile as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 50.5 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Derrick Henry's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 87.9% to 72.7%.