Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has been on the field for 60.0% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Derrick Henry's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 87.9% to 83.3%.

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