Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has run a route on 39.0% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in football (86.6%) to RBs since the start of last season (86.6%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace among all games this week, averaging 27.47 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Tennessee Titans O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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