Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.0 (+105/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.0 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 2.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 10.6.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have incorporated play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 40.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 7th-least in football.

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