Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -169 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 3.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has been a big part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 10.3% this year, which puts him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (88.9%) versus running backs this year (88.9%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.8 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Derrick Henry's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 87.9% to 80.9%.

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