Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+156/-219).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -219.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 3.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 10.2% this year, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.7 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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