Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Derrick Henry has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 10.5% this year, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the 2nd-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling just 52.3 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

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