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Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Ravens are predicted by the predictive model to run 65.7 total plays in this game: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens profiles as the 5th-best in football this year.Derrick Henry's pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 8.65 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 6.39 mark last season.With a stellar 9.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (76th percentile) this year, Derrick Henry rates among the best RB receiving threats in the league in picking up extra yardage.This year, the feeble Cleveland Browns defense has yielded the 7th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a staggering 8.78 YAC.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 4-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their usual approach.The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.Derrick Henry has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, playing on 55.0% of snaps vs just 43.5% last year.The Cleveland defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best DE corps in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
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