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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 8th-most plays in the league have been called by the Ravens this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).

When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.

Derrick Henry's 7.5 adjusted yards per target this year shows a remarkable improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 6.4 rate.

With a terrific 9.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Derrick Henry rates as one of the top RB receiving threats in football in space.

The Commanders pass defense has not been good when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 8.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Ravens are a massive 8-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 125.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Washington Commanders linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

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