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Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-110).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.The Bengals defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.6 per game) this year.Derrick Henry's 10.0 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a material boost in his receiving ability over last season's 6.4 rate.Derrick Henry's ability to pick up extra yardage has improved this year, accumulating 12.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 9.82 rate last year.When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 6 points.The leading projections forecast the Ravens as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have just 125.9 total plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.Derrick Henry has been much more involved in his team's offense this year, playing on 55.8% of snaps compared to just 43.5% last year.As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the lowly 19th percentile among running backs this year, with just -3.0 per game.
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