Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this game.
Derrick Henry's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 84.3% to 100.0%.
With an outstanding 8.6 adjusted yards per target (90th percentile) this year, Derrick Henry ranks as one of the best pass-game RBs in football.
Derrick Henry's 14.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a noteworthy growth in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 10.7% rate.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 50.8% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans.
As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the measly 3rd percentile among running backs this year, accruing just -7.0 per game.
Derrick Henry's 9.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 15.2.
Derrick Henry's 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season indicates a significant decrease in his receiving talent over last season's 22.0 rate.

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