Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Derrick Henry's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 84.3% to 100.0%.
Derrick Henry grades out as one of the most effective receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs, averaging a stellar 9.37 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 89th percentile.
Derrick Henry's skills in picking up extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, accumulating 16.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 10.73 figure last year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans this year (just 52.0 per game on average).
When talking about air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the measly 5th percentile among running backs this year, with just -7.0 per game.
Derrick Henry's 8.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 15.2.

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