Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-116/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has been on the field for 60.0% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has been among the leading pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 18.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.
Derrick Henry's pass-game efficiency has improved this season, compiling 10.28 yards-per-target compared to just 7.63 mark last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Derrick Henry has put up a mere -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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