Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 2.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 10.6.
Derrick Henry has posted quite a few more receiving yards per game (24.0) this year than he did last year (17.0).
Derrick Henry's pass-catching efficiency has improved this season, notching 9.24 yards-per-target vs a mere 7.59 rate last season.
Derrick Henry's talent in picking up extra yardage have been refined this season, averaging 11.77 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 8.83 figure last season.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 40.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 7th-least in football.

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