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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Carries
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens are a massive 8-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The 8th-most plays in the league have been called by the Ravens this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).

In this game, Derrick Henry is predicted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 98th percentile among running backs with 18.8 rush attempts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 125.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

After taking on 65.7% of his team's rush attempts last season, Derrick Henry has had a smaller role in the running game this season, currently accounting for only 55.3%.

When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Washington's LB corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the 4th-best in football.

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