Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:11 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-106/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 18.4 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game.
The Cleveland Browns defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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